Rare earths & critical raw materials

Nearly every advanced weapon system depends on materials whose processing is concentrated in very few countries. Permanent magnets containing neodymium and dysprosium sit inside actuators, motors and guidance systems; gallium and germanium are essential to radar and infrared components; antimony is used in ammunition and infrared optics. Export restrictions on any of these translate quickly into defense production risk, which is why the segment has moved from an industrial concern to a national security one.

Mining is not the bottleneck. Separation and refining capacity, and magnet manufacturing in particular, are where dependency is concentrated, and both require years to build alongside environmental permitting that can extend timelines further. Western governments have responded with offtake agreements, price floors and direct equity participation — interventions that materially change the risk profile of companies in the segment by underwriting demand and, in some cases, price.

Coverage here follows export control announcements, government support mechanisms, offtake and processing agreements, permitting decisions and new capacity coming online. Note that pricing in these markets is volatile and thinly traded, and that announced projects frequently slip.