Space launch & spaceflight services

Launch has moved from a bottleneck to a competitive market over the past decade, and cost per kilogram to orbit has fallen enough to make proliferated constellations viable — the single change most responsible for the current shape of military space. Defense demand now splits between heavy national security payloads requiring certified providers and smaller, more frequent launches supporting distributed architectures.

Certification is the barrier that matters commercially. Carrying national security payloads requires a demonstrated flight record and process assurance that takes years to establish, which limits how quickly new entrants can access the highest-value contracts regardless of their technical capability. Responsive launch — placing a satellite in orbit on short notice to replace a lost asset — is an emerging requirement with different qualification criteria.

Coverage follows launch contract awards and task orders, vehicle development and certification milestones, launch cadence and failures, and infrastructure investment at launch sites. Note that announced cadence targets in this industry are routinely missed, and that a single failure can pause a programme for months.